March Madness Prediction

26 03 2009

It’s that time of year again. A time when dreams are realized, hopes are dashed, and everyone you speak to believes himself to be the foremost knowledge on college hoops. It’s March Madness season; time to bust out your bracket for your office pool, and pick who you think will be the next NCAA champions.
This is as tough a year as any to pick a championship team; there is no clear favorite, as all four number one seeds have had key losses. Connecticut lost twice to Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh lost to Louisville, and Louisville lost to Connecticut. Each of those three teams has lost to a number one seeded team. North Carolina is the only exception, but they lost to a Maryland team which is seeded tenth in the west bracket. So, all this kept in mind, here are my picks for the 2009 NCAA Final Four:
Midwest: Louisville Cardinals
West: Memphis Tigers
East: Pittsburgh Panthers
South: North Carolina Tar Heels
Louisville’s biggest competitions in their bracket are Kansas and Michigan St. The good news? Kansas and Michigan St. will have to play each other, so only one of these teams will stand in the way of the Cardinals. Louisville is also 7-1 in games against top 25 ranked teams, so they have great success against the top teams in the country. Another dangerous potential opponent for Louisville is Wake Forest, but they play Cleveland St. in the first round, a team that has a good chance to upset them. Cleveland St. plays a stifling defense which could cause nightmares for a team like Wake Forest which struggles in the half court offense. If Cleveland St. comes away with the win, it’ll make an easier opponent for Louisville. Because of its potential schedule and its tremendous success against the NCAA’s best, I think Louisville has what it takes to get to the Final Four.
Memphis comes out of a weaker conference (C-USA), but their 31 wins are nothing to frown at. Memphis has a great chance to do some damage in the West since the number one seeded Connecticut is without star Jerome Dyson. The Tigers play great defense, only allowing 56.8 points per game. Also, they’re red hot of late, winning each of their last 12 games. I think Memphis will carry that momentum right into the tournament.
Pittsburgh is an extremely well-balanced team led by DeJuan Blair, a menace in the paint. The only speed bump Pittsburgh could face is Villanova, who has already beaten them this season. But, for Pittsburgh to even face Villanova, Villanova would have to beat UCLA: a team that can light it up from three-point land on any given night. Duke doesn’t have the guard talent to stop Levance Fields, a terrific playmaker. Overall, the Panthers have enough all-around talent to make it to the Final Four.
North Carolina’s only major obstacle is the injured toe of Ty Lawson. They have an unbelievable offensive attack, and expect senior Tyler Hansbrough to give everything he has in his final shot at winning a championship. Lawson’s injury should be healed by the time they face more dangerous opponents. North Carolina, averaging over 90 points a game, is a smart choice to make it to the final four.
The Semifinals:
Louisville over Memphis
Although Memphis is a tremendously talented team, they were just 1-2 in games against the nation’s top 25. I believe the tough defense of Rick Pitino’s Cardinals will be enough to hold off the Tigers.
UNC over Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is big and strong, but they can’t run with the Tar Heels. Ty Lawson is a machine, and Tyler Hansbrough will cause match-up problems for Pittsburgh, who will fall short in this one.
The Championship:
Louisville over UNC
Louisville’s twin towers: Samardo Samuels and Earl Clark will be able to hold off North Carolina’s high-scoring attack. Rick Pitino has sculpted his team’s defense to perfection, and the axiom “defense wins championships” will be evident.





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